Short Term Perceptions Equal Long Term Losses

I’ve been getting coached and studying poker like crazy for the last few weeks.

One of the things that is really sticking out for me at the moment is WHY people play so badly - and lose so much money to good players.

And I think it’s largely because they see someone do something that works ONCE or maybe TWO, or THREE times… and then concludes that it’s the RIGHT thing to do. In reality the behavior has a NEGATIVE expectation over the long run (which means it will lost more often then it wins) but they haven’t done the math, and so they DON’T KNOW they are playing to lose 100% for certain.

Like there’s not even a question that they are going to be losing money. They’re GOING DOWN… eventually!

Being an entrepreneur is exactly the same as being a poker player - we’re trying to invest our capital into projects which carry some risk for a gain GREATER than we could expect if we worked using our CURRENT skill set in a job. (Not including our entrepreneurial skill set, which doesn’t get used in a job usually - unless you’re a high level exec but even then - not really).

And because we run internet businesses we are able to assess the mathematics of the success or failure of any of our projects if we choose. Which is a very powerful learning tool. Many young gun poker pro’s are only JUST old enough to be drinking - and yet - they are winning $200k/month playing poker. This is because they are using the internet to RECORD the way they play and ruthlessly pick apart their decision making - and improving much faster than a player OFFLINE could ever expect to.

Apart from the potential reach we have in front of us as internet entrepreneurs who can have anyone with an internet connection in the world as one of our customers - we ALSO have the opportunity to record our decision making -and ruthlessly pick apart what we’ve done up to this point in our careers.

IMHO it’s THE MOST POWERFUL opportunity we have. We have the option if we want, to look our business building skills in the mirror and see them for what they REALLY are.

No one who runs an offline business can do this. No. They’ve GOT TO GUESS instead.

As individuals we can see where we’ve been tripped up watching the short terms perceptions - drawing incorrect conclusions too quickly, making assumptions that turn out to be wrong. And ultimately becoming FAR BETTER entrepreneurs then we could ever HOPE to be if we didn’t have the analytical opportunity of knowing exactly what we’ve done - and then asking ourselves WHY we’ve done it.

This opportunity and choice is one I exercise every day. And my income, my recognition, and my overall wellbeing are the better for it.

Here’s some questions I ask myself daily:

  • Do I have a traffic problem, a lead gen problem, or a conversion problem in the campaign in front of me?
  • Will gaming the system gain me traffic only to hurt my lead gen or conversion in this market?
  • Can I afford to lose all the money I’ve invested in this project so far? Can I afford to continue losing money at the rate I currently am up until this projects completion?
  • Have I emailed all my virtual employee’s for progress updates today? Have I been clear with them about the outcomes I expect and the time frame I expect them in?
  • What is the weakest link in my current plan on this mind map? How can I mitigate it or plan around it?

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    3 Responses to “Short Term Perceptions Equal Long Term Losses”

    1. Mihaela "Mig" Lica Says:

      Poker? Damn… you are good (sorry for the new signature link, but this is my private time;))
      Damn, YOU are good… AGAIN!
      John, you have a “conversation” problem. Thank you for the linky… to The Dog Yard and all… but… Come on! I was challenging you to follow up my comment and you? Nothing? Or was I not making my point clear enough?
      I like your style, I like your topics, but if you do not reciprocate my efforts (and boomer, a linky is not enough) I’ll run away. “Too busy, too important” or better said “Be very very quiet, I’m hunting wabbits - linkibits.” :)

    2. SBJ Says:

      I’m not really sure what comment you’re referring to Mihaela - what were you challenging me about?

    3. Mihaela Lica Says:

      You answered it. :) I just didn’t see it in time. It was the comment about the book.
      Thanks for the permission. You’ll get to read it anyway before we make it public.
      And no, I never reproduce what other bloggers write without asking permission. I am a PR after all :)

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